Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: evidence from five landscape–fire–succession models

Classify & Cross-ref
BushfireTopic: 
Fire Management
Fuel Management
ResearchAdoption: 
Prescribed burning
Project Reference: 
Fire Regimes and Sustainable Landscape Risk Management
TitleRelative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: evidence from five landscape–fire–succession models
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2009
AuthorsCary, GJ, Flannigan, MD, Keane, RE, Bradstock, RA, Davies, ID, Lenihan, JM, Li, C, Logan, KA, Parsons, RA
JournalInternational Journal of Wildland Fire
Volume18
Issue2
Pagination147
Date Published2009
AbstractThe behaviour of five landscape fire models (CAFÉ, FIRESCAPE, LAMOS(HS), LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) was compared in a standardised modelling experiment. The importance of fuel management approach, fuel management effort, ignition management effort and weather in determining variation in area burned and number of edge pixels burned (a measure of potential impact on assets adjacent to fire-prone landscapes) was quantified for a standardised modelling landscape. Importance was measured as the proportion of variation in area or edge pixels burned explained by each factor and all interactions among them. Weather and ignition management were consistently more important for explaining variation in area burned than fuel management approach and effort, which were found to be statistically unimportant. For the number of edge pixels burned, weather and ignition management were generally more important than fuel management approach and effort. Increased ignition management effort resulted in decreased area burned in all models and decreased number of edge pixels burned in three models. The findings demonstrate that year-to-year variation in weather and the success of ignition management consistently prevail over the effects of fuel management on area burned in a range of modelled ecosystems.
DOI10.1071/WF07085
Short TitleInt. J. Wildland Fire
Refereed DesignationRefereed