Quantifying spatio-temporal differences between fire shapes: Estimating fire travel paths for the improvement of dynamic spread models

Classify & Cross-ref
BushfireTopic: 
Fire Behaviour
ResearchAdoption: 
Prescribed burning
Project Reference: 
Enhancement of Fire Behaviour models
TitleQuantifying spatio-temporal differences between fire shapes: Estimating fire travel paths for the improvement of dynamic spread models
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsDuff, TJ, Chong, D, Tolhurst, KG
JournalEnvironmental Modelling & Software
Volume46
Start Page33
Pagination33-43
Date Published08/2013
KeywordsBushfire, Morphometrics, Perimeter, Shape analysis, Spatial validation, Wildfire
AbstractDynamic fire spread models are a recent development in landscape management that provide for the simulation of the spread of fires through time under complex weather conditions. These allow risks to be assessed and resources to be strategically managed. The need for reliable and accurate fire models is of particular importance in the face of recent catastrophic wildfires in Australia, Europe and the United States. However, while fire spread models are developed using physical knowledge and empirical observations, there are few techniques which can be used to objectively assess the ‘goodness of fit’ of spatial predictions of fire spread. We propose a new method to allow the comparison of fire perimeters, providing for the discrimination of sources of simulation error and assisting in the collection of empirical spread data from observed fires. Differences between fire perimeters are quantified using linear vectors aligned with the direction of spread of the perimeter being sampled. These can provide an indication of difference in terms of the fire spread distance on the ground. The location, direction and length of these vectors can be used to assess spread rates to assist with model calibration. We demonstrated the utility of this method using a case study which assessed differences between the observed and simulated progression of an Australian wildfire. The new indices were found to be effective descriptors of differences in fire shape and hold potential for the spatial evaluation of fire spread models. The indices can be used to compare similar fire shapes; however they are unsuited for cases where there are large differences between perimeters.
URLhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815213000455
DOI10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.02.005