The following drivers of change have been identified for the fire and emergency services sector over the next 15 years. Clearly, these are only a subset of the full impact of these drivers. However, these are the issues that need the support of strong, independent research to enable an appropriate response by the sector.

Climate change and drought

Climate change and drought are expected to have extensive impact on the emergency response sector, specially as these factors lead to changes in the frequency and duration of bushfires and also impact on water availability for fire fighting. In the urban environment, water (un)availability may lead to a drive to change the way fires are managed, leading managers to ask what better ways there are of extinguishing fire than pouring massive quantities of water on them. For land managers, climate change may drive ecosystem change, resulting in a need to modify fire regimes. Fire in the landscape is already a key element in the management of water resources, and climate change will only make this a more important element. Land managers also need to understand the implications and opportunities that a move to a carbon economy may bring.

Demographic change

Migration of people both into the central areas of cities and out to the city fringes will have a major impact on service delivery. In the cities, aging infrastructure, more high-rise living and greater numbers of people may lead to an increase in large fires, which will require a critical examination of fire cover for some of these areas. Many of Australia’s cities have seen a rebirth of their centres, with high-density living increasing.

At the same time, the growth of the cities is also seeing greater numbers of people moving to the rural–urban interface areas, typically to be close to nature. It is this proximity that leads to the increase in risk.

Many in this population will be retirees, unable and unused to providing their own protection against fire and this will put pressure on volunteer-based fire services for numbers, impacting on the recent adoption of policies encouraging increased community self-protection. Compounding this, these pressures are coming at a time when climate change will lead to longer and more severe fire seasons and a greater pressure on services.

Workplace health and safety

The sector already has a strong focus on workplace safety in what is an inherently dangerous workplace; however, the pressures for ever-more safe working conditions will continue and we need to understand both the risks and the risk management options clearly to ensure the ongoing protection of fire fighters, the community and the economy.

The impact of airborne toxics both in the rural areas from bushfire, but also in urban areas from new building and furnishing materials will become paramount. Being able to do more with less will continue to be a pressure on fire services.

The questions will eventually focus on why we should be sending people into some of the more hazardous situations and what must we do to change this. Importantly, we also need to understand the impact modern fire fighting has on other aspects of life for those who contribute to this critical public good.

Changing Technology

The sector has relied largely on well-established methods for service delivery and might be regarded as slow adopters of new technologies. This is in part because of the high reliability requirements of this sector, but it is becoming clear there are many areas of technological change that could be considered, including greater use of spatial imaging technologies, better use of decision support tools and expert systems, and better use of robotics, particularly in the urban environment.

Understanding how to adopt these new technologies and explaining the benefits these will bring is a key issue for the industry.

Legislation and policy

The emergency services are constantly grappling with the impact of inquiries of various types. These soak up large amounts of time and effort across all agencies and do not always make the most productive use of resources. It is believed the increasing frequency of such inquiries and the related personal accountability for inherently high risk and very fluid situations may lead to behavioural change and risk-averse cultures that could reduce the effectiveness of emergency management outcomes. It is clear that in many aspects of the industry, from land-use planning though to incident management the role of supportive legislation and policy is crucial. But what is needed is a clearer view of what good policy and legislation looks like.