Landscape moisture modelling

Landscape Moisture Modelling -developing models to predict the flammability of forest fuels in the Victorian landscape as a result of changes in fuel moisture content through the drying and wetting of fuels under exposure to the weather and sun.

This research is being undertaken for the Victorian Department of Environment and Primary Industries (DEPI).

Project Brief

This project aims to:

• develop models necessary to predict the flammability of forest fuels in the Australian landscape as a result of changes in fuel moisture content through the drying and wetting of fuels via exposure to the weather and sun; and
• adapt and validate existing point-based models using experimental measurements in Eucalyptus forests. 

The project will provide DEPI with:

• a fuel moisture data set.; and
• operational guidelines for the application of the new models for fuel availability in Eucalyptus forests in south-eastern Australia.

In the first phase of the project, field measurements will be used to test and develop model algorithms. Transect(s) will be established that cover a range of key forest environments (e.g. woodland on ridge tops through to rainforest gullies) to track seasonal variation in fuel availability.  These measurements will be used to test and develop representation of key physical processes in the fuel moisture models.  Adequate representation of these processes is central to predicting landscape fuel availability and connectivity for spread of large fires.

In the second phase of the project, field measurements will be used to validate model algorithms and to develop operational procedures for describing forest structure and fuels to allow model application. Guidelines for model application will be developed as a lead into integration in any new FDRS. These measurements will be used Adequate representation of local variation in dry conditions is necessary for prediction of fire behaviour and local variation in fire hazard.