Prediction of the probability of large fires in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia using fire weather

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BushfireTopic: 
Ecology and Biodiversity
Fire Management
ResearchAdoption: 
Prescribed burning
Project Reference: 
Fire Regimes and Sustainable Landscape Risk Management
TitlePrediction of the probability of large fires in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia using fire weather
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2009
AuthorsBradstock, RA, Cohn, JS, A. Gill, M, Bedward, M, Lucas, C
JournalInternational Journal of Wildland Fire
Volume18
Issue8
Pagination932
Date Published2009
AbstractThe probability of large-fire (≥1000 ha) ignition days, in the Sydney region, was examined using historical records. Relative influences of the ambient and drought components of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) on large fire ignition probability were explored using Bayesian logistic regression. The preferred models for two areas (Blue Mountains and Central Coast) were composed of the sum of FFDI (Drought Factor, DF = 1) (ambient component) and DF as predictors. Both drought and ambient weather positively affected the chance of large fire ignitions, with large fires more probable on the Central Coast than in the Blue Mountains. The preferred, additive combination of drought and ambient weather had a marked threshold effect on large-fire ignition and total area burned in both localities. This may be due to a landscape-scale increase in the connectivity of available fuel at high values of the index. Higher probability of large fires on the Central Coast may be due to more subdued terrain or higher population density and ignitions. Climate scenarios for 2050 yielded predictions of a 20–84% increase in potential large-fire ignitions days, using the preferred model.
DOI10.1071/WF08133
Short TitleInt. J. Wildland Fire
Refereed DesignationRefereed